Jonathan Hooper

We are nine games in to Yeovil’s 24/25 National League season so let’s look at what the data is telling us about the team’s performance in each game. Has there been a tactical change in recent games and how has our form been affected? 

NB. YTFC Performance score is my score based on the data, not the result

Yeovil 0 Hartlepool 1

First up was a tricky encounter with former manager Darren Sarll’s Hartlepool.

YTFC Performance Score: 1/7
Yeovil xG: 0.73
Hartlepool xG: 1.22

Hartlepool’s xG was nearly 0.5 higher than Yeovil’s. Despite Yeovil having 60% of the ball their first shot came in the 75th minute. My results predictor has Hartlepool winning that match 47% of the time and Yeovil on 20%.

This left the expected points from the game looking like Yeovil Town on 0.93 and Hartlepool United expected points 1.75. 

Braintree 0 Yeovil 1

Second game was a trip to National League South Playoff winners Braintree.

YTFC Performance Score: 4
Braintree Town xG: 0.72
Yeovil xG: 0.92

Results predictor has this game down 38% of the time as a Yeovil win. This leave the expected points looking like this:

Braintree Town xP: 1.15
Yeovil Town xP: 1.50

Yeovil Town 3 Ebbsfleet United 2

A dominant performance from the Glovers, the best attacking display of the season

YTFC Performance score: 7
Yeovil Town xG: 3.49 (2.67 from regular play and 0.82 from set pieces)
Ebbsfleet United xG: 0.44

Result predictor had Yeovil winning this game 95% of the time leaving the predicted points looking like:

Yeovil Town xP: 2.90
Ebbsfleet United xP: 0.06

Gateshead 3 Yeovil Town 1

Longest away trip of the season was up next as the Glovers travelled to Gateshead. Despite the scoreline the overall  performance was at a very good level.

YTFC Performance Score: 4
Gateshead xG: 1.82
Yeovil Town xG: 1.34

Note the Gateshead Set Piece xG 0.76, that is entirely from the penalty at the end. Without that Yeovil have a higher xG (I’ll come back to that shortly).

Result Predictor shows Gateshead winning 49% of the time and the expected points in their favour as well.

Gateshead xP: 1.75
Yeovil Town xP: 0.99

Now if we take the penalty away, the result predictor reads in Yeovil’s favour with a Yeovil win percentage of 43.5% and a draw at 28.5%. this leave the Expected points looking like Yeovil’s 1.59 and Gateshead down to 1.12. 

Yeovil Town 0 Rochdale 1

Bank holiday Monday saw Rochdale visit Huish Park and snatch a 1-0. Despite the result the performance from the Glovers was solid if unspectacular.

YTFC Performance Score: 5
Yeovil Town xG: 0.55
Rochdale xG: 0.27

Result predictor was in favour of a draw at 49% or a Yeovil win at 36%. Expected points was in favour of Yeovil as well.

Yeovil Town xP: 1.58
Rochdale xP: 0.92 

Boston United 1 Yeovil Town 3

3 points in the bag at Boston but what does the data tell us? Yeovil got lucky, even against 10 men for 70 minutes. Thank you Brett McGavin and Ollie Wright.

YTFC Performance Score: 2
Boston United xG: 2.24
Yeovil Town xG: 1.92

Results predictor has Boston winning this game 45% of the time. Which means expected points is in their favour as well.

Boston United xP: 1.6
Yeovil Town xP: 1.16

Fylde 3 Yeovil Town 4

Next up was another long trip for the Glovers as they travelled to Fylde and got a great win, but did the performance match the result?

YTFC Performance Score: 3
Fylde xG: 2.34
Yeovil Town xG: 2.24 (thanks to a massive (1.22 from set pieces)

Expected result was in Fylde’s favour as they win 40% of the time.

Fylde xP: 1.44
Yeovil Town xP: 1.33

Yeovil Town 0 Solihull Moors 1

Glovers were back at home as the faced Solihull. Solihull took the spoils and the data shows they deserved it

YTFC Performance Score: 1
Yeovil Town xG: 0.5
Solihull Moors xG: 0.9

Solihull win the game 44% of the time.

Yeovil Town xP: 0.93
Solihull Moors xP: 1.7

Yeovil Town 0 Altrincham 0

Yeovil entertained Altrincham but not the crowd as both teams failed to find the net. 

YTFC Performance Score: 3
Yeovil Town xG: 0.56
Altrincham xG: 0.71

A slightly better performance from the glovers but hardly any threat. Altrincham have the two best chances, which gives them a 36% win chance. Draw being 39%.

Yeovil Town xP: 1.1
Altrincham xP: 1.5

So if we work out all the xP from every game it leaves the table looking like this:

Note Altrincham being 3rd from bottom. The bottom two have already sacked their manager, Yeovil having played both. In fact Yeovil have played all of the bottom 3 and 4 of the bottom 7.

Yeovil are performing pretty well and roughly on the points they should be. However, then I spotted a recent dip in form. Here you can easily see we have been second best in the last four games, including two games against two of the worst performing teams in the league to date – AFC Fylde and Altrincham.

If you remember the Gateshead performance without the penalty was a positive one. The last four games are all suddenly negative, which shows a drop in performance, including games against arguably three of the teams Yeovil should be stronger than. Especially if you look at the expected points table above, playing teams below them.

Last Friday I spotted this, which made me think: Why has the performance suddenly dropped? What has changed?

At first my thinking was that we have had members of our regular back four missing, including Morgan Williams who had been injured. Then it clicked, our dip in performance has coincided with us moving to a new tactical formation with 3 central midfielders.

Let me explain….

Mark Cooper has moved away from his successful box formation which he had started the season with. Read Cooper talking about the box formation following the win over Taunton Town here.

This is generally how we have lined up for the first five games of the season and the box is there with the two central midfielders and two central defenders.

In the last four games we have started the game with three central midfielders. One holding and two slightly further forward. Which looking at it you would think should be more solid and being able to control games.

Against Altrincham I specifically observed the midfield closely, as I felt something wasn’t right and what I saw shocked me slightly.

As the Yeovil defenders pick up the ball and start passing it around, the Defensive Midfielder (in this case Charlie Cooper) drops in with the central defenders or sometimes deeper than them. There is no issue with this. However, at the same time where are the other two central midfielders? Coming short to help progress play? No they are closer to Aaron Jarvis.

As the crowd grow impatient due to the lack of speed in passing and the lack of progressive passes, the ball is then launched forward to a now front five, which sometimes becomes seven with the full backs joining in. Altrincham comfortably dealt with this. Now, this might be how Mark Cooper wants them to play, but I can’t believe it is.

“We tried to stick to our identity pleased me the most. I know there are certain sections of our crowd that want us to boot the ball forward, but I will not do that and maybe my opinion is what makes us effective.” Mark Cooper after beating Ebbsfleet

This is how we look with the ball as it is being passed around at the back. Often the Full backs are higher as well believe it or not.

Don’t believe me? Here is a photo of this very thing happening.

Question: Can you spot Charlie Cooper?
Answer: He the player closest to Ollie Wright by a good five metres.

Question: Which Yeovil players are moving?
Answer: Three, Whittle, Nouble and the ball carrier Williams.

Morgan Williams has five static Yeovil players in front of him and two others on the other side of the pitch making runs away from him. There are six Altrincham players Williams has to get the ball past before any of those in green shirts can get it, a near impossible task.

How can this be resolved?  Charlie Cooper was 20 meters further forward in the centre circle straight away that gives a link between defence and midfield. He could receive the ball on the half turn and we would be past 3 defending players. He would then have three Yeovil players directly in front of him and one Altrincham player, instantly Yeovil would be in a great attack position.

It’s not just Charlie Cooper, if Sonny Blu Lo-Everton or Matt Worthington notice that Cooper is out of position, why isn’t one of them filling that space? If they’re not noticing it, why not? The more different options you have to attack the more a defence has to think and react, which in itself creates more space. The attackers are often getting the blame for not enough quality but if you are feeding off scraps you will always struggle. I would suggest it is the supply to the forwards that is the issue.

“We didn’t have any quality, our forward players produced zero quality.” – Mark Cooper after losing to Solihull 

“You expect them to produce the bit of quality they are in the team to produce.” – Mark Cooper after losing to Hartlepool

The lack of movement off the ball is a worry to me. It is magnified at the throw-ins. They take forever and no one seems interested in receiving the ball, with most players are just standing still. It may be that Mark Cooper wants the control the ball and the game like that, but the speed they are currently playing at it allows the defending team to get set in their defensive shape, which is then harder for Yeovil to breakdown. 

Two of Yeovil’s best chances on Saturday came from players breaking on the transition, this meant the opposition were on the back foot and out of position. Play faster and this will happen more often.

I am not sure if this is how Mark Cooper wants them to play, the players just aren’t used to the system yet or something else. Perhaps the four goals in the second half at Fylde has made Mark Cooper want to play a more direct style. However, for me, the midfield needs to be activated and link defence to attack. Currently the midfield is being bypassed.

If I see three central midfielders on the team sheet against Oldham, I will hope this issue has been resolved.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!

I have kept putting my next blog off. The main reason during the second half of season the data which I was seeing could be viewed as negative. For those of you who might be sceptical of data or struggle to understand xG. I highly recommend reading ‘The expected goals philosophy’ by James Tippett.

“rejecting the Expected Goals method, a new type of analysis which questions the conventional wisdom of football, is much easier than advocating it.”

I will be looking at xG (Expected Goals) and xGA (Expected Goals Against). From this I will calculate xPts (Expected Points). xPts is normally calculated using the Monte Carlo method, more here on that.  For NLS due to the data I have had available, I have used an xG differential and expected points from that, I have used the following:

For context here is the Premier League table Expected Points vs Actual Points. You can tell who the teams who over-performed  or under-performed their data. Image from https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy.

From this we can see the top three were expected to be clear of the rest. Villa and Spurs can count themselves fortunate to finish in the top five and Newcastle unlucky to miss out on the Champions League. Manchester United were lucky to finish as high as they did, massively outperforming their expected points.

Lets dive into Yeovil’s data by fixture. The table below shows actual goals scored and conceded vs expected goals and goals conceded. It also shows points earned and expected points and how the compare by fixture. Pts v xPts if the number is negative this shows that Yeovil have been unlucky while green shows them being lucky in picking up more points.

You can see during the winning streak Yeovil had luck on their side, however in three of the four games after the winning run they were extremely unlucky not to pick up more points. You can also see a decrease in form after Christmas. The 16 games between St Albans away to Worthing at home, Yeovil lost 11 of the 17 on xG. Interestingly, Rhys Murphy and Jake Hyde were missing for this full period.

Here is the NLS Expected Points Table:

As you can see, from Mark Cooper’s sides’ performances over the season – on expected points – should have seen them finish in 6th. Worthing and Slough would have had a battle for the title based on this.  Before Adam Hinshelwood left for York, Worthing were quite a bit clear. It could well be the reason why York moved for him when they did. You can see the last Expected Points table I published in late January here: https://twitter.com/hoopsss/status/1750855887843905932.

Here is the full league table with expected points and xG included:

Let us know what you make of the data, and Yeovil’s performance levels over the season in the comments.

With the club already breaking the National League South attendance record twice this season and with only eight home games left, let’s look at what records or targets the club could be looking at.

If we take the big attendances out and look at the trend, it is still upwards, with nearly 500 extra supporters coming on average.

 

 

Average attendance before W*ymouth was 2,977. The average attendance after W*ymouth and before Taunton and Bath was 3,366. Last game was 3,591

 

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Possible Targets

The number of people through the turnstiles is one that the club hierarchy might be keeping an eye on. The club is currently on course for over 95,000 people through the turnstiles this season (Cup & League).

 

The 100,000 barrier being broken is a real possibility. The club would need to average 4,299 in the remaining eight games to make it a reality.

 

Here are my predicted attendances to break the 100,000 barrier:

 

Slough Town	3500
Havant & Waterlooville	3500
Weston-super-Mare	4500
Welling United	3500
Chippenham Town	3750
Torquay United	7000
Worthing	4000
Dartford	5000

This would give Yeovil a total of 100,361 fans through the turnstiles this season and an Average League Attendance of 3931.

The club is going great guns. Much of the plaudits need to go to the new owner, bringing back the club to the community and making it feel connected again. The team winning on the pitch has meant more have turned up each week, people like winning teams. Finally the general supporter who have come cheered and helped the team to victory.

In Part Three of his statistical analysis of Yeovil Town’s centre midfield, Jonathan Hooper takes us through the varying combinations we’ve seen under Mark Cooper so far this season. You can read Part  One and Part Two here.

Midfield Combinations

Before I dive into this, I love data and what it can tell you about what is happening on the pitch, but I also know it doesn’t give the full picture. Data such as xG is done on averages, as an example some teams may play above their xG for a period of time, such as German side Union Berlin did last season to qualify for the champions league but this isn’t sustainable for a long period of time, now this season they’re near the bottom of the Bundesliga. However, xG and other metrics are good indicators of the underlying performances of teams and players.

xG can only show so much, for example Yeovil had a higher xG than Welling despite losing 4-1. If we look at the xG story you can see Welling’s xG was superior to Yeovil’s until the very good Fisher chance late on.

Please bear this in mind as we look at performances from different combinations and analyse the performances.

THE DATA

Yeovil have lined up with 7 (seven) different midfield combinations so far this season in the league. Here they are:

Worthington & Cooper and Worthington & Lo-Everton have both player 6 games and have the same record, won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. This gives them a PPM of 2.17 which are both above the teams average PPM of 2.14 so far this season. Worth noting that Worthington & Cooper have played against harder opposition on average. Oppo strength = league position of opposition / number of games, lower the number harder the fixtures.

Next with 4 games Worthington, Lo-Everton & Cooper, lowest PPM of a combination to play more than 1 match together. Then it is Worthington & Owers with 3 games and 3 wins, against the hardest opposition as well.

Quick look at a 2 combo v 3 combo

2 in the middle: 15 games, 11 wins, 2 draws & 2 losses. PPM of 2.33

3 in the middle: 7 games, 3 wins, 3 draws & 1 loss. PPM of 1.71

Cohesion, in team sports, especially football, I believe this is one of the most underrated parts of the game. Fans want new signings nonstop, but at what point does that become detrimental to the team? Just look at the amount of signings Chelsea & Nottingham Forest have made recently and how their performances are in relation. One company I like is Gainline analytics, they are mainly Australian sport dominated but their piece on Leicester in 2015/16 is very good, You can view it here.

Keeping Mark Cooper over the summer gave Yeovil a better start to this season as it bought consistency, and his success in retaining many of the squad. During the winning run the back 5 stayed the same throughout, this can only help the team grow and understand as it moves forward. However, the rest of the team changed frequently, below I will go through the games, trying to read Mark Coopers mind, or should we call him Claudio Cooper after Claudio “the Tinkerman” Ranieri, lets find out…

START OF THE SEASON

First 4 games of the season, it was consistently Worthington & Cooper. Going by xG Yeovil slowly got better, the gap in xG between the teams grew each game. Yeovil finished ahead of their Expected points despite the loss to Hemel.

Worth pointing out Jordan Maguire-Drew, started just in front of the 2 in in midfield for each game.

Yeovil finished ahead of their Expected points despite the loss to Hemel. Actual 7 Expected 5.2.

Next up was Tonbridge, we started with Worthington, Cooper, & Lo-Everton for the first time. We dominate the game, xG difference is 1.10 and xPts is 2.3. Here its looks like a good change from the gaffer, 2 goals and a clean sheet. JMD didn’t start this game, in his place was Jordan Young for his first start of the season.

Next up was Havant after a 2 day turn around. Cooper selected the same trio as Saturday we started with Worthington, Cooper, & Lo-Everton, 2 changes in the back 4 and all 3 up front. However the system remained the same. We lose 4-3, we also lose the xG battle by 0.66 and our expected points is 0.5.

THE UNBEATEN RUN

Chelmsford at home sees the introduction of Williams as a DM, playing just behind a duo of Lo-Everton and Cooper. Yeovil win the xG battle by 0.75 and their xPts is 2.00 but the Glovers fail to make their chances count and draw 1-1. A positive performance.

Next up was Weston away, first of plenty Somerset derbies this season. Yeovil start Owers for the first time, Worthington and Williams joining him. Cooper misses via a suspension. Yeovil win 3-2, thanks to 3 set piece goals. However, the data suggests Yeovil got lucky. Losing the xG battle by 0.66 that means the Glovers expected points from the game was 0.5. This is where the xG story I mentioned above  comes into it a bit better, Yeovil scored 2 goals before the 20th minute. WSM got one back from a long range effort late in the first half. Yeovil get a 3rd in the 55th minute. Yeovil shut up shop and WSM throw everything at it and get a goal late on. Interestingly this game was Yeovil’s lowest possession game so far this season in the league with 40% of the ball.

Last two games, going by data, dominate one and draw, get dominated and win.

Eastbourne were next on the list, Yeovil lined up with Owers, Lo-Everton and Williams in the middle. Worthington started as well but in more of a left wing role. Again according to the data Yeovil were lucky to come away with the win. losing the xG battle by 0.29. their xPts was 0.7.

Winning whilst not playing well, champions stuff. Despite the wins, was Cooper happy? I don’t know but for the next match he reverted back to…

Worthington & Cooper to face Hampton and Richmond. Yeovil got the win but once again lost on data and xG difference of -0.15 and xPts 0.7. However, H&R got their goal from a late penalty, in xG a penalty is worth roughly 0.75, which means on average a penalty is scored 3 out 4 times. If you were to take the penalty away, Yeovil would have won on the data.

Aveley were the next visitors, Mark Cooper changes the midfield again, due to an injury to Charlie Cooper. Incomes Josh Owers to partner Matt Worthington. this is the midfield duo for the next 3 league games (4 if you include FA Cup against Southend) These games are also the first time Yeovil reverted to a more traditional 4-4-2. Here is how the data lines up

A pretty successful run of games, winning on data comfortably on two of them. The other Worthing were awarded a penalty late on, same as the H&R game. Without that penalty Yeovil would have won each game by over 0.5 on xG.

Despite the success of this partnership, it was broken up for the Braintree game. I am unsure if this was because of injury to Owers or another reason but it was the start of a six game run for a new partnership Lo-Everton and Worthington.

You can see against Braintree it was a pretty even affair, not helped by the weather. Yeovil got a bit lucky in this game as the data shows. Then a strong run of form winning each game on data as well as on the pitch.

Chippenham, looking at the data it was one of our best away performances of the season, we did struggle to score on the day but the xG suggests we should have been comfortable winners.

Welling, as I mentioned at the start, we won the xG but they were leading until late on. It wasn’t Yeovil’s best performance of the season but not one where you’d expect them to concede 4.

RECENT GAMES

After the loss to Welling Mark Cooper decided to change up the midfield duo and formation.

Bath game, Cooper replaces Lo-Everton and partners Worthington. we got lucky, had one chance and took it. That said Bath never really created a golden opportunity and only just beat us on xG. Dartford, we revert back to 3 in midfield with Worthington, Cooper and Lo-Everton, the data suggests we played well, created numerous chances but didn’t take all of them, whilst Dartford were the clinical ones. Similar to the Chippenham game.

Hampton & Richmond, continuing with the trio in midfield of Worthington, Cooper and Lo-Everton. Pretty even game one that we did lose the xG battle on just but a draw was probably a fair result.

RANKING

I have scored each of the combinations, based on fixture difficulty and xPts, here is my rankings

Worthington & Owers come out on top, do you think they should start more often?

HOME AND AWAY

I am often interested in how teams fair differently playing away from home. Yeovil’s PPM is 0.80 per game less away from home. What causes this I do not know. Teams do seem braver at home. The fact Yeovil have lost to 2 of the bottom 4 also baffles me. Lets have a look to see what combinations have done what home and away

Conclusion

In the first part what struck me was the slight imbalance of having 2 or 3 right footed players in central midfield. I didn’t have the data to compare the midfield to a midfield with one right and one left footed player.

The second part we could start to see different aspects of players games from different metrics and stats. each player had their stand out aspect, from Owers being more feisty and getting stuck in to Lo-Everton creating chances.

In this part we can see how the different combinations fair. Owers & Worthington finished top in my metric, is that because of the balance of a right & left footed player, luck or something else? Do the tweaks that Mark Cooper makes help or hinder the side over a long term?

As Mark Cooper said in his recent press conference, we may not be winning every game currently but the data performances are generally good, if not better now than they were during the winning run. As I said at the start data can only tell you so much, if you take an early lead then look to control the game may be a success getting results but the data looks poor. We all know which one we would prefer to win between actual points and xG/xPts.

What we can see from the data is that every player and every combination has their strengths & weaknesses, lets all hope Mark Cooper can get this best out of them. Go on the Glovers!

What duo or trio would you pick to start?

SPEED OF PLAY

One thing I’ve heard recently from other supporters is that some players slows down play, I do not have the data to prove or disprove this. However, as a bonus, below is a chart showing passes per 90 and passing rate for every team in the league. Higher the passing rate the faster a team moves the ball.

Do you have any thoughts about Jonathan’s epic three-parter? Leave a comment below.

Here is the second of three posts looking into Yeovil Town’s central midfield and what the data tells us. You can read Part One here. As with  part one, I have included Brett McGavin from Torquay as a reference point and  Luke Russe from Bath City.

ATTACK

GOALS AND ASSISTS

We can see Matt Worthington is leading the way with 2 goals from an xG of 2.13, with a goal every 10 games or so. Worthington is also our only midfielder to have equal or more than 1 shot per game on average.

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton as the same goals per 90 but has scored one goal and played less games. Lo-Everton only has an xG of 0.29 from 7 shots, thats less than 1 shot per game on average. Which I find quite surprising after the positioning analysis done in Part 1. 

Charlie Cooper is yet to score, despite having 11 shots and 0.79 xG. Surely his first Yeovil goal is coming soon.

Josh Owers has a goal, a winner against this weekend’s opponents Eastbourne Borough. Of our 4 midfielders Owers has the least shots per game (0.64) and the lowest xG created 0.18.

McGavin has an impressive 6 goals from 0.91xG, tip for anyone playing Torquay watch the edge of your area with him about!

ASSISTS

King of the assists from midfield is Lo-Everton with 3, that’s an assist once every 4 games. His expected assists is slightly lower than his actual at 2.32. Part of that could be explained as he passed to Nouble as he chipped the Eastbourne keeper from miles out. His other two assists were both to Hyde and Young and were both passes. He also has one third assist to his name.

Next up is Worthington with 3 assists from an expected assists of 1.87, which shows he is getting more assists than you would expect. His assists include a cross to Wannell to win the game against the Truro, his other two are both passes to Jordan Young.

Charlie Cooper has 2 assists currently, one from a free kick against Bath. He was also the corner taker against Havant where we scored our first goal, which I don’t think is counted. His open play assist came against Truro with a pass to Olly Thomas. He has an expected assists of 1.13 and an assist every 0.16 games.

Josh Owers bottom again, no assists yet for him this season but he does have an expected assist of 0.34.

Interestingly from open play our central midfield have  provided 3 assists in the opening 5 games and only 4 in the 16 since.

CROSSES, DRIBBLES AND FOULS

Worthington makes the most crosses by over 0.5 per 90 compared to other Yeovil midfielders. The other three all make just under 0.75 a game.

Lo-Everton makes the most (1.82) dribbles per 90, next is cooper with 1.29 per 90, then Worthington with 0.96 and finally Owers with 0.72 per 90.

Worthington has the most touches in the box per 90 but it is still below 1 per game. Lo- Everton second, followed by Cooper and Owers.

Cooper is the 3rd most fouled player in the league winning 2.34 free kicks per 90. Owers is second most fouled Yeovil midfielder with 1 per 90, Worthington third with 0.64 and Lo-Everton last with 0.34 per 90.

DEFENCE

Owers starts to show himself here, he makes the most duels however his success rate is below the others, The number of successful duels is still the highest at 5.6 per game, Cooper next best with 5.4 successful duels per game. Unsurprisingly Lo-Everton makes the least amount of duels.

Interceptions, if you look at Russe and McGavin both are around 2 more per 90 minutes than any of Yeovil’s midfielders. It may just be a style thing, Yeovil are ranked 39th out of the 48 teams for interceptions (808) and rank 7th for possession, 53.6% on average.

Aerial Duels is a metric that interests me as I often notice Yeovil either not competing for the ball or losing the second ball. Whilst there is no data on the second ball part. Aerial Duels suggest we don’t compete much for it when it is in the air middle of the pitch. Owers makes the most attempts with 3.15 per 90, then it is Worthington with 2.47, but he only wins 48% of them, that’s 1.2 aerial duels he wins a game. Cooper is third with 1.78 a game and Lo-Everton only has 0.64 aerial duels per game. This order pretty much matches their height order (Heights from Wyscout)

• Owers 6’1″
• Worthington 5’10”
• Cooper 5’9″
• Lo-Everton 5’7″
• McGavin 6’0″
• Russe 5’5″

McGavin has the most duels and wins the most out of the 6 players listed. However, Russe the shortest player competes for the second highest amount of aerial duels per 90. Does this mean its a tactic from Yeovil not to compete for them or they just don’t happen that often in Yeovil games?

Progressive passes allowed per 90, here the lower the number the better, Lo-Everton comes out on top for the Yeovil players, but is that because he plays further forward generally? Worthington and Cooper are about the same, but Owers lets 6.45 past him per 90, the highest amount on our list. McGavin once again topping this stat.

The last metric I’m looking at today is fouls per 90, Owers tops this one with just over 2 per 90, which is 0.22 duel per foul. Worthington also has a 0.22 duels per foul, whilst Cooper and Lo-Everton also have a similar duels per foul of 0.12. McGavin may give away 1.1 foul a game but his duels to fouls ratio is 0.13. For transparency, Russe duels to fouls is 0.09.

CONCLUSIONS

Before going this analysis I had some preconceptions, especially about Charlie Cooper and his defensive role. The number suggest he is better than I thought. However, when you compare all four of our midfielders’ defensive stats to Torquay’s McGavin, all come second best. If this was football manager, a tall Defensive Midfielder is a player I would be scouting for, if I couldn’t get McGavin.

Attack wise Lo-Everton’s stats come out on top. Because Yeovil do not have a singular DM I do wonder if this limits the attacking threat of the midfielders.

• Best attacking midfielder is Lo-Everton
• Best all round midfielder is Worthington
• Best defensive midfielder is McGavin (Cooper for Yeovil)

In the next and final piece on Yeovil central midfield I will look at the midfield combinations used so far this season by Mark Cooper, or is it Claudio Cooper?

In a series of posts I am going to be looking into Yeovil Town’s Central Midfielders, their individual stats, positioning and how they get on in different combinations.

In this, the first part I will look at High level stats, construction, and positioning. Coming up later in the week will be the second part on attack & defence and a third and final piece on the different combinations that Mark Cooper has used so far this season.

Seven players have played in central midfield this season, Matt Worthington, Charlie Cooper, Sonny Blu Lo-Everton, Josh Owers, Morgan Williams, Josh Staunton and Jordan Maguire-Drew. The latter two played in the cup against Didcot, whilst Williams started 3 league games at Defensive Midfield (DM), for the data analysis all 3 players are excluded.

Also included Brett McGavin from Torquay as a reference point. He is one of, if not, the best midfielders in the league who is not at Yeovil. When we look at positioning we will look into Luke Russe from Bath a bit more depth.

There will be a lot of terms you may not be aware of such as “Smart Pass” or “Key Pass”, if so please visit Wyscouts Glossary here

HIGH LEVEL

Here are each players high level stats.

If you were planning to play 2 in the middle, from an quick initial look you would say Worthington and Owers should start as when they play the team picks up more points.  Lets dive deeper into the data to see if it aligns.

CONSTRUCTION (AKA PASSING)

From this we can see that Cooper makes the most passes on average, however, both Worthington and Lo-Everton are both more accurate with their passes. Whilst Owers plays less passes and his accuracy is below the other 3.

Cooper also plays more long passes than the others despite his accuracy being below 50%. Bother Cooper and Owers pass the ball long 15% of the time. Whilst Lo-Everton only plays long passes 6% of the time.

When passing to the final third Owers’ and Cooper’s accuracy goes AWOL. Cooper attempts nearly 10 a game which is 3 more than Worthington who has the second most passes to the final third, however, Worthington’s accuracy is 11% better.

With Key passes and Smart passes, Lo-Everton is a class of his own. Whilst it shows Owers and Cooper are more conservative players not looking for the miracle ball, or could it be they are more defensive as if you compare these two metrics to Russe they are pretty close.

PROGRESSION

Next up is Progression (attempting to draw the team significantly closer to the opponent goal by running with or passing the ball)

Worthington’s accuracy here is a step above the others, his ball progression per minute is also 2.5 meters per minute. At the other end Owers, who doesn’t run or pass the ball as much as the others only progresses with the ball 1.2 meters per minute.

ONE LINE SUMMARY ON EACH PLAYER

Worthington – Best passing midfielder we have.

Cooper – Good passing accuracy but when going forward his accuracy drops.

Lo-Everton – Our most creative player in the middle of the pitch.

Owers – Only left footed player of the 4, doesn’t have the ball as much as the others.

POSITIONING
VS BATH CITY

Yeovil lined up 5-2-3, with Cooper & Worthington in the middle. This formation changed to a 4-4-2 near the end of the first half after Dawes had replaced Whittle.

From this passing position graphic you can see that Yeovil’s midfield were all central right. Leaving Dawes/Whittle alone on the left. I found this surprising especially as Jordan Thomas was attacking the side where the space is on the picture above, 61% of Bath’s attacks came down this side.

Attacks wise with the position of the central midfielders, you would assume most attacks came from the right or centre. However, only 48% came from the right, 50% came from the left (Thanks to Mr Dawes), whilst only 2% came through the middle despite playing incredibly narrow, were we missing Lo-Everton?

Cooper & Worthington only made 36 passes between them the whole game, only 1 pass to each other the whole game, despite them playing so close, or is it because they were playing too close?

7 of Cooper’s 15 passes went to the starting centre backs, 3 to Young and 3 to Dawes. 6 of Worthington’s passes went to Smith, and 8 to the starting centre backs.

There is a reasonable gap between defence and midfield.  You can see below, Hayfield, Bath’s number 8, had a bit of space to work in.

If we look at Bath’s passing position chart, guess which player Russe is?

He is number 19! Bath are a lot more symmetrical on the eye, not that symmetrical means better on the grass. Note number 2 Raynes and 15 Jordan Williams, they made 26 passes to each other. The most in the game, was this because of Yeovil’s lopsided midfield?

VS DARTFORD

Sonny Blu Lo Everton tries his luck. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown.Yeovil lined up 4-4-3, with Cooper, Lo-Everton & Worthington in the middle.

You can see from the image, Cooper (24) is the deeper of the 3, almost level with Wannell (6), unsurprisingly because of their closeness Cooper passed to Wannell 7 times during the game, which was over 20% of his passes.

Worthington (8) filling the left space which was empty against Bath, makes 12 passes to Dawes, thats over quarter of his passes. Less than 20% of his passes were to the centre backs.

Lo-Everton only made 21 passes the whole game, 33% to the centre backs, next highest was 20% of his passes going to Jordan Young.

Cooper and Lo-Everton passed to each other 3 times
Cooper and Worthington passed to each other  8 times
Worthington and Lo-Everton passed to each other 5 times

Was Lo-Everton too far forward and isolated or was it because Cooper was playing too deep and/or playing further to the left?

Attack wise 45% came from the left and 42% through the middle.

POSITIONING CONCLUSION

The data sample is too small to jump to any firm conclusions. However, it does raise a couple of questions, Cooper and Worthington seem to bunch in the examples shown. Are they too similar of a player to play in the same team or could it be that the players may struggle with the changes in tactics each game.  This is especially apparent when you look at Bath’s positioning, they have system and stick to it and have strong cohesion.

Another thing to bear in mind is 3 of the 4 players are right footed which means the balance is out. Left footed centre backs are rare in today’s game. Thanks to Wannell it is not a problem for Yeovil, however is left footed central midfielder an issue?

Maybe in part 2 some of these questions will be answered…

The attack, how is it going?

After a few games where we haven’t looked our best or have missed plenty of chances lets take a deep dive into the stats

Overall the top line stats suggest it is doing well…

Total Goals Scored: 42, 1st, highest in the league.
Total Shots: 258, 6th highest in the league.
Total Shots on Target: 136, 2nd highest in the league.
% Shots on Target: 53%, 3rd best in the league.
Shots per Goal: 6.14, 1st, best in the league.
xG Created: 33.17, 6th highest in the league.
xG per Goal: 0.79, 2nd best in the league.

In total 18 players have been involved in a goal, with 14 different goal scorers and 15 different players providing assists.

Overall it is going well, scoring above xG but personally I think we should be creating more with the names we have. That being said we are top scorers in the league even if we can’t beat a team by 3 or more goals. 5/7

What about the players?

Yeovil Town attacking players ranked by goal involvements.

Jordan Young, 15 goal involvements. 6/7

Our Star boy, as many would call him. He has played 19 times (15 starts & 4 appearances off the bench) he has played 1283 minutes so far this season, that is 68% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.53 PPM 0.34 points more than the team average and 2 highest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 92 minutes, best in the current squad

Stats wise he is unsurprisingly our main man

• 8 Goals, joint 10th top in National League North & South
• xG 5.5, ranked 42nd
• 53 Shots, 12th highest
• 32 (60%) shots from outside the area, 5th highest)
• 6.6 shots per goal
• 6 Assists
• Expected Assists 4.82, ranked 5th
• Crosses not in top 100
• Dribbling 87, ranked 20th
• Fouled 1.73 times a game, 54th highest

 Not a 7/7 only due to him now and then having games where his shooting gets a bit erratic.

Rhys Murphy, 10 goal involvements. 4/7

Our main striker. He has played 18 times (13 starts & 5 appearances off the bench) he has played 1096 minutes so far this season, that is 58% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.46 PPM 0.27 points more than the team average and third highest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 110 minutes, second best in the current squad

Stats wise he hasn’t scored as many as he should have, nearly 3 goals less than expected, on the plus side he is getting in the right positions and having those chances.

• 8 Goals, joint 10th top in National League North & South
• xG 10.84, ranked 4th
• 0.6 goals every 90 minutes, ranked 20th
• 47 Shots, 21st highest
• 5.9 shots per goal
• 47% of shots on target, ranked 21st
• 2 Assists
• Expected Assists not in top 100
• Fouled not in top 100

Gone with a 4/7 here, that is harsh you might say but before recent games it would have been a 5 or 6 however, he isn’t taking advantage of the chances coming his way as the xG shows.

Frank Nouble, 6 Goal Involvements 5/7

Big Frank, one of only 2 players to have played a part in every league game so far this season. He has played 21 times (17 starts & 4 appearances off the bench) he has played 1552 minutes so far this season, that is 82% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.12 PPM 0.07 points less than the team average and thirteenth highest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 212 minutes, eighth best in the current squad. However, he is ranked joint 3rd for second assists with 3 (passing the ball to the assister, think of Hyde’s goal against Braintree)

• 5 Goals, joint 49th in National League North & South
• xG 3.84, ranked 80th
• 27 Shots, 98th highest
• 5.4 shots per goal
• 29.63% of shots on target, ranked 87th
• 2 Assists
• Expected Assists 3.04, ranked 35th

Gone with a 5 for big Frank, he has been a key player this season, scored some incredible goals and does a job for the team.

Jake Hyde, 6 Goal Involvements 5/7

Our number 9, getting a bit of a name for himself as a super sub, 1 goal when starting but 4 from the bench. He has played 16 times (6 starts & 10 appearances off the bench) he has played 694 minutes so far this season, that is 37% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.33 PPM 0.14 points more than the team average and sixth highest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 116 minutes, third best in the current squad.

• 5 Goals, joint 49th in National League North & South
• xG 4.49, ranked 54th
• Not in top 100, less than 26
• 2 goals form headers, ranked 8th highest
• Not in top 100, less than 14.29%  on target
• 1 Assist
• Expected Assists not in top 100, less than 1.95
• Aerial duels per 90 10.81 ranked 53rd

Goals and Assists both over their expected numbers, had a short goal drought but back on the goal train now. I’m sure he would love to snag one when he starts soon.

Jordan Maguire-Drew, 4 Goal Involvements 3/7

JMD, started 5 of the first 6 games (the last being Havant & Waterlooville), 1 goals and 2 assists in those 5 games. However, since then he has sat on the bench 13 times and got on to the pitch 5 times, 1 assist from those appearances, a vital one at Worthing. He has played 10 times. He has played 492 minutes so far this season, that is 26% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 1.40 PPM 0.79 points less than the team average and the lowest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 123 minutes, fourth best in the current squad.

• 1 Goal
• 3 Assist, ranked 22nd
• 3.02 Expected Assists, ranked 32nd

A disappointing season so far from JMD, he has the talent but does he have the fight? I hope so, he is brilliant on his day. Given him 1 extra point for the free kick at Worthing alone.

Sonny Cox, 3 Goal Involvements 3/7

Our most recent addition. He has played 9 times (7 starts & 2 appearances off the bench) he has played 527 minutes so far this season, that is 28% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.00 PPM 0.19 points less than the team average.

He is involved in a goal every 132 minutes, fifth best in the current squad

• 2 Goals
• 1 Assist

Started with a bang, 2 vital goals against Dover. I love his pace and aggression but lacking the end product in recent weeks.

Jordan Stevens, 2 Goal Involvements 2/7

If only he wasn’t so injury prone. He has played 8 times (3 starts & 5 appearances off the bench) he has played 346 minutes so far this season, that is 18% of available league game time. Less than 5 starts so no PPM for him but every time he has started, we have won.

He is involved in a goal every 173 minutes, sixth best in the current squad

• 1 Goal
• 1 Assist

This feels harsh, he is great….when fit. I hope he finds a fix to his injury troubles soon. Class player on his day.

Will Dawes, 1 Goal Involvement 2/7

Last is Dawes, a fan favourite but he only has 1 goal involvement, an assist against Aveley. Before we get deep into his stats I would like to point out two things, I like watching him play and that he is unlucky, many of his crosses have come off a defender and fallen to a Yeovil forward who puts it away. However, in the last two games (Bath & Dartford) he has made 15 crosses, 0 have hit a Yeovil player.

Dawes has played 10 times (8 starts & 2 appearances off the bench) he has played 723 minutes so far this season, that is 38% of available league game time. When he starts Yeovil pick up on average 2.13 PPM 0.07 points less than the team average and twelfth highest in the squad.

He is involved in a goal every 723 minutes, sixteenth best in the current squad.

From the stats we can see it matches our perception of him he loves to run with the ball and get it in the mixer.

• Crosses 37, ranked 100th
• Crosses per 90 4.06, ranked 21st
• Dribbling 66 ranked 53rd
• Dribbles per 90 7.24 ranked 14th
• Fouled 2.2 times a game, 12th highest
• Progressive runs per 90 4.17 Ranked 4th highest  

However, when we look at his accuracy/success it isn’t pretty

• Crossing not in top 100, less than 10.2% hit a Yeovil player.
• Dribbling not in the top 100, less than 51.61% are successful.

Here is where I like what he does, he isn’t afraid of getting stuck in and winning the ball back cracking work rate.

• Defensive duels per 90 7.9 ranked 79th (Josh Owers 9.32 & Charlie Cooper 7.83)
• Interceptions per 90 5.71 ranked 53rd (Wannell 5.4 88th )

I would have scored him a 1 but his effort and tenacity gives him an extra point but his end product needs to improve, How long can he keep starting if there is no end product?

We’d love to hear your views on our attacking talent in the comments below. 

Data collected from footystats.org and Wyscout. All rankings from Wyscout and based on National league South and North combined.

PPM – Points per match