We are nine games in to Yeovil’s 24/25 National League season so let’s look at what the data is telling us about the team’s performance in each game. Has there been a tactical change in recent games and how has our form been affected?
NB. YTFC Performance score is my score based on the data, not the result
Yeovil 0 Hartlepool 1
First up was a tricky encounter with former manager Darren Sarll’s Hartlepool.
YTFC Performance Score: 1/7
Yeovil xG: 0.73
Hartlepool xG: 1.22
Hartlepool’s xG was nearly 0.5 higher than Yeovil’s. Despite Yeovil having 60% of the ball their first shot came in the 75th minute. My results predictor has Hartlepool winning that match 47% of the time and Yeovil on 20%.
This left the expected points from the game looking like Yeovil Town on 0.93 and Hartlepool United expected points 1.75.
Braintree 0 Yeovil 1
Second game was a trip to National League South Playoff winners Braintree.
YTFC Performance Score: 4
Braintree Town xG: 0.72
Yeovil xG: 0.92
Results predictor has this game down 38% of the time as a Yeovil win. This leave the expected points looking like this:
Braintree Town xP: 1.15
Yeovil Town xP: 1.50
Yeovil Town 3 Ebbsfleet United 2
A dominant performance from the Glovers, the best attacking display of the season
YTFC Performance score: 7
Yeovil Town xG: 3.49 (2.67 from regular play and 0.82 from set pieces)
Ebbsfleet United xG: 0.44
Result predictor had Yeovil winning this game 95% of the time leaving the predicted points looking like:
Yeovil Town xP: 2.90
Ebbsfleet United xP: 0.06
Gateshead 3 Yeovil Town 1
Longest away trip of the season was up next as the Glovers travelled to Gateshead. Despite the scoreline the overall performance was at a very good level.
YTFC Performance Score: 4
Gateshead xG: 1.82
Yeovil Town xG: 1.34
Note the Gateshead Set Piece xG 0.76, that is entirely from the penalty at the end. Without that Yeovil have a higher xG (I’ll come back to that shortly).
Result Predictor shows Gateshead winning 49% of the time and the expected points in their favour as well.
Gateshead xP: 1.75
Yeovil Town xP: 0.99
Now if we take the penalty away, the result predictor reads in Yeovil’s favour with a Yeovil win percentage of 43.5% and a draw at 28.5%. this leave the Expected points looking like Yeovil’s 1.59 and Gateshead down to 1.12.
Yeovil Town 0 Rochdale 1
Bank holiday Monday saw Rochdale visit Huish Park and snatch a 1-0. Despite the result the performance from the Glovers was solid if unspectacular.
YTFC Performance Score: 5
Yeovil Town xG: 0.55
Rochdale xG: 0.27
Result predictor was in favour of a draw at 49% or a Yeovil win at 36%. Expected points was in favour of Yeovil as well.
Yeovil Town xP: 1.58
Rochdale xP: 0.92
Boston United 1 Yeovil Town 3
3 points in the bag at Boston but what does the data tell us? Yeovil got lucky, even against 10 men for 70 minutes. Thank you Brett McGavin and Ollie Wright.
YTFC Performance Score: 2
Boston United xG: 2.24
Yeovil Town xG: 1.92
Results predictor has Boston winning this game 45% of the time. Which means expected points is in their favour as well.
Boston United xP: 1.6
Yeovil Town xP: 1.16
Fylde 3 Yeovil Town 4
Next up was another long trip for the Glovers as they travelled to Fylde and got a great win, but did the performance match the result?
YTFC Performance Score: 3
Fylde xG: 2.34
Yeovil Town xG: 2.24 (thanks to a massive (1.22 from set pieces)
Expected result was in Fylde’s favour as they win 40% of the time.
Fylde xP: 1.44
Yeovil Town xP: 1.33
Yeovil Town 0 Solihull Moors 1
Glovers were back at home as the faced Solihull. Solihull took the spoils and the data shows they deserved it
YTFC Performance Score: 1
Yeovil Town xG: 0.5
Solihull Moors xG: 0.9
Solihull win the game 44% of the time.
Yeovil Town xP: 0.93
Solihull Moors xP: 1.7
Yeovil Town 0 Altrincham 0
Yeovil entertained Altrincham but not the crowd as both teams failed to find the net.
YTFC Performance Score: 3
Yeovil Town xG: 0.56
Altrincham xG: 0.71
A slightly better performance from the glovers but hardly any threat. Altrincham have the two best chances, which gives them a 36% win chance. Draw being 39%.
Yeovil Town xP: 1.1
Altrincham xP: 1.5
So if we work out all the xP from every game it leaves the table looking like this:
Note Altrincham being 3rd from bottom. The bottom two have already sacked their manager, Yeovil having played both. In fact Yeovil have played all of the bottom 3 and 4 of the bottom 7.
Yeovil are performing pretty well and roughly on the points they should be. However, then I spotted a recent dip in form. Here you can easily see we have been second best in the last four games, including two games against two of the worst performing teams in the league to date – AFC Fylde and Altrincham.
If you remember the Gateshead performance without the penalty was a positive one. The last four games are all suddenly negative, which shows a drop in performance, including games against arguably three of the teams Yeovil should be stronger than. Especially if you look at the expected points table above, playing teams below them.
Last Friday I spotted this, which made me think: Why has the performance suddenly dropped? What has changed?
At first my thinking was that we have had members of our regular back four missing, including Morgan Williams who had been injured. Then it clicked, our dip in performance has coincided with us moving to a new tactical formation with 3 central midfielders.
Let me explain….
Mark Cooper has moved away from his successful box formation which he had started the season with. Read Cooper talking about the box formation following the win over Taunton Town here.
This is generally how we have lined up for the first five games of the season and the box is there with the two central midfielders and two central defenders.
In the last four games we have started the game with three central midfielders. One holding and two slightly further forward. Which looking at it you would think should be more solid and being able to control games.
Against Altrincham I specifically observed the midfield closely, as I felt something wasn’t right and what I saw shocked me slightly.
As the Yeovil defenders pick up the ball and start passing it around, the Defensive Midfielder (in this case Charlie Cooper) drops in with the central defenders or sometimes deeper than them. There is no issue with this. However, at the same time where are the other two central midfielders? Coming short to help progress play? No they are closer to Aaron Jarvis.
As the crowd grow impatient due to the lack of speed in passing and the lack of progressive passes, the ball is then launched forward to a now front five, which sometimes becomes seven with the full backs joining in. Altrincham comfortably dealt with this. Now, this might be how Mark Cooper wants them to play, but I can’t believe it is.
“We tried to stick to our identity pleased me the most. I know there are certain sections of our crowd that want us to boot the ball forward, but I will not do that and maybe my opinion is what makes us effective.” Mark Cooper after beating Ebbsfleet
This is how we look with the ball as it is being passed around at the back. Often the Full backs are higher as well believe it or not.
Don’t believe me? Here is a photo of this very thing happening.
Question: Can you spot Charlie Cooper?
Answer: He the player closest to Ollie Wright by a good five metres.
Question: Which Yeovil players are moving?
Answer: Three, Whittle, Nouble and the ball carrier Williams.
Morgan Williams has five static Yeovil players in front of him and two others on the other side of the pitch making runs away from him. There are six Altrincham players Williams has to get the ball past before any of those in green shirts can get it, a near impossible task.
How can this be resolved? Charlie Cooper was 20 meters further forward in the centre circle straight away that gives a link between defence and midfield. He could receive the ball on the half turn and we would be past 3 defending players. He would then have three Yeovil players directly in front of him and one Altrincham player, instantly Yeovil would be in a great attack position.
It’s not just Charlie Cooper, if Sonny Blu Lo-Everton or Matt Worthington notice that Cooper is out of position, why isn’t one of them filling that space? If they’re not noticing it, why not? The more different options you have to attack the more a defence has to think and react, which in itself creates more space. The attackers are often getting the blame for not enough quality but if you are feeding off scraps you will always struggle. I would suggest it is the supply to the forwards that is the issue.
“We didn’t have any quality, our forward players produced zero quality.” – Mark Cooper after losing to Solihull
“You expect them to produce the bit of quality they are in the team to produce.” – Mark Cooper after losing to Hartlepool
The lack of movement off the ball is a worry to me. It is magnified at the throw-ins. They take forever and no one seems interested in receiving the ball, with most players are just standing still. It may be that Mark Cooper wants the control the ball and the game like that, but the speed they are currently playing at it allows the defending team to get set in their defensive shape, which is then harder for Yeovil to breakdown.
Two of Yeovil’s best chances on Saturday came from players breaking on the transition, this meant the opposition were on the back foot and out of position. Play faster and this will happen more often.
I am not sure if this is how Mark Cooper wants them to play, the players just aren’t used to the system yet or something else. Perhaps the four goals in the second half at Fylde has made Mark Cooper want to play a more direct style. However, for me, the midfield needs to be activated and link defence to attack. Currently the midfield is being bypassed.
If I see three central midfielders on the team sheet against Oldham, I will hope this issue has been resolved.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!