Gloversblog (Page 14)

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A 1-1 draw against a decent St Albans City extended Yeovil Town’s unbeaten run to nine matches and keeps them top of the National League South table by ten points with games in hand over many promotion rivals.

But, they also lost defender Michael Smith to injury and we learned strikers Rhys Murphy and Jake Hyde are out for “the foreseeable future.” Here’s what Dave made of it all.


A great advert for National League South: Before the game, we’d heard about two sides on good runs of form who were capable of playing exciting, attacking football.In the first half, it was Yeovil who were in the ascendency and really should have gone in at the break with more than a 1-0 advantage. Second half, it was St Albans’ game and they showed excellent spirit to cause us more problems than any team I have seen us play this season. Their interim manager said they should have taken all three points, but I thought a draw was a fair reflection of the game. How many times this season have we heard opposition managers say they should have beaten us when they haven’t?Add John Meakes to the list.

Put yer laces through it, Jordan: I mentioned on the podcast the other week that Jordan Young needs to be more clinical. It sounds ridiculous to say about a player with 12 goals this season, but he had two glorious opportunities to either score of set up a team mate at 1-0 and another in the second half. Take one of those and we’re talking about three points rather than one. He does so well to get in to those positions, if he could find a more clinical edge he could be running away in the scoring stakes.

Jordan Young put the Glovers ahead in the 19th minute. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown

Super Joe Day’s in goal: It’s been a season where Joe Day has often not had a lot to do between the posts, but in the second half he showed exactly what he’s about. On a number of occasions he had to be on his game to keep St Albans out and was unflappable even in the nervy moments when the ball was pinging around inside our box. Sign him on!


Injuries starting to bite: If there were three players that were poster boys for Mark Cooper’s minute management, they would be Michael Smith, Rhys Murphy and Jake Hyde. Two players only at this level because of their injury records (Murphy and Hyde) and one who is 35 years young. In reality, we have done well not to lose them for longer. Smith will be the biggest loss, he’s been beyond exceptional this season, but hopefully he is not out for too long. Up front, we definitely missed the bit of devilment that either Murphy or Hyde give us off the bench at St Albans, but we have options. Hopefully the new arrival on Monday offers a focal point a’la Nouble for the links of Young, Pearson and hopefully Jordan Stevens to revolve around.

 
Michael Smith limped off with a hamstring injury late in the second half at St Albans. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown
 
Three points on Tuesday, please: This game feels like a point gained against a decent side, and pick up three points at home to Slough Town on Tuesday and it looks even better. Win your home games and pick up points on the road is the recipe for success. Up the Glovers!

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With the club already breaking the National League South attendance record twice this season and with only eight home games left, let’s look at what records or targets the club could be looking at.

The current highest average attendance in National League South is 3,219, set by AFC Wimbledon in 2008–09.
 

Yeovil are currently averaging 3,710, the club only need to average 2,301 in their remaining games to break the record. I think this record is being broken with two games to spare (Torquay at home).

If we look North the record attendance in National League North is by York City FC at 7,488 (21 May 2022). It would be nice to beat that as well.

How does this compare to previous seasons?

The table below shows how many people have attended Yeovil league games over the last 10 seasons
 
SeasonLeagueNumber of Home League GamesAverageTotal Supporters2023/24 vs Percentage Difference
2023/24NLS15371055653N/A
2022/23NLP2327306279036%
2021/22NLP2223785231656%
2020/21NLPCOVIDCOVIDCOVIDN/A
2019/20NLP18 (Covid)29515311826%
2018/19EFL 22329526789626%
2017/18EFL 22329416764326%
2016/17EFL 2233566820184%
2015/16EFL 223393590505-6%
2014/15EFL 123434699958-15%
 
Currently the club have their highest average attendance since the 2015/16 season. To beat the 2015/16 season, YTFC would need to average 4,357 for the remaining games. Possible.
 
Despite still have 8 home games left, the glovers have already seen more fans through the turnstiles than in the 2021/22 season and are only 7,137 people through the turnstiles away from topping last season total.
 

Have Yeovil’s attendances grown over the season so far?

As you can see in the first chart attendances have improved as the season has progressed.
 
 
If we take the big attendances out and look at the trend, it is still upwards, with nearly 500 extra supporters coming on average.
 
 
Average attendance before W*ymouth was 2,977. The average attendance after W*ymouth and before Taunton and Bath was 3,366. Last game was 3,591
 
6301 People in Huish Park, another NLS record ? Gary Brown
 

Possible Targets

The number of people through the turnstiles is one that the club hierarchy might be keeping an eye on. The club is currently on course for over 95,000 people through the turnstiles this season (Cup & League).
 
The 100,000 barrier being broken is a real possibility. The club would need to average 4,299 in the remaining eight games to make it a reality.
 
Here are my predicted attendances to break the 100,000 barrier:
 
Slough Town 3500
Havant & Waterlooville 3500
Weston-super-Mare 4500
Welling United 3500
Chippenham Town 3750
Torquay United 7000
Worthing 4000
Dartford 5000

This would give Yeovil a total of 100,361 fans through the turnstiles this season and an Average League Attendance of 3931.

? Gary Brown

The club is going great guns. Much of the plaudits need to go to the new owner, bringing back the club to the community and making it feel connected again. The team winning on the pitch has meant more have turned up each week, people like winning teams. Finally the general supporter who have come cheered and helped the team to victory.

Lets get behind the team for the remaining eight games and help get the club over that 100,000 barrier.

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Yeovil Town picked up another victory at Huish Park yesterday against Hemel Hempstead thanks to two goals from Sam Pearson on his return in green and white. Here are Ian’s Conclusions from Fortress Huish…

We’ve got a player in Sam Pearson. We kind of knew this anyway, but with the circumstances in which he left last season, it felt like Pearson had a point to prove. And he sure proved it. He was non-stop and a constant thorn in the side of Hemel’s defenders. The Welshman was always available for his teammates and showed real bravery on the ball. His first goal was an acrobatic effort (which he described as his trademark goal) and the second had a giant chunk of fortune about it, but they all count. The 22-year-old has made a brave decision to leave Bristol City and is motivated to show what he can do. What a piece of business.

Sam Pearson celebrates his second goal. Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

Despite our small squad, we’ve got so many attacking options. Last season, our recruitment was infamously terrible. This season, it couldn’t be more juxtapose. When you look at the combinations yesterday, and who’s missing, this team could do damage to most teams on its day. Here’s who we’ve seen play at the top end of the pitch this season so far: Sam Pearson, Frank Nouble, Jordan Young, Sonny Blu Lo-Everton, Jake Hyde, Dylan Morgan, Will Dawes, Jay Foulston, Rhys Murphy, Jordan Stevens. (+ Alex Fisher and JMD) There won’t be many teams in the National League with as many fluent, exciting combinations as that.

It should have been more than 2-0. Over the course of the 90 minutes, Yeovil were the dominant team and should have scored more. There were a lot of nearly moments in and around the box, including some well-timed interceptions by the Hemel Hempstead defenders. Jake Hyde’s header looked destined for the back of the net, but for an excellent save from Craig King in the Tudor’s goal. If the Glovers can turn a few more of those nearly moments into goals, things could get even more comfortable.

Jake Hyde heads at goal. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown

It got a bit spicy! Clearly, the Glovers have not forgotten about the defeat on the opening day. After the game Mark Cooper revealed how Hemel were banging on the changing room walls and doors following the 1-0 defeat in August, so revenge was on the cards yesterday. In the second half, some of that animosity started to come through and there were some rough tackles. Charlie Cooper was victim to a tackle which you’ve definitely seen red cards for, but Craig Scriven only though it was worthy of a yellow. Jake Wannell took a whack in the face in the first half. Mark Cooper said “we can give it out as well and we have to have that nasty streak. I don’t know any team that wins things that has not got that streak in them that they will look after each other.”

Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

It was another professional performance. This team turn up, get the job done and move on to the next one. They have had a laser focus on getting out of National League South at the first time of asking and we’re on course to do that – by the end of February according to Frank Nouble. We’re unbeaten at home and playing some great football at times and everyone in that squad steps up when required to. It’s eight without loss since the Welling game. We’ve won five in a row now and with the upcoming fixtures, belief and professionalism, what’s to say we can’t go another run like we did earlier in the season? 

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And now you’d better believe us.

Fire up your favoured live scores app and you’ll notice that Yeovil Town are top of the National League South by way of 13 points. Thirteen(!) points clear and we’re not even close to the end of January. You could argue that for a full-time club in a part-time division with the budget we have, 13 points clear is exactly where we should be. But for the sake of this piece, and for the sake enjoying the moment to the fullest, I’m going to ignore that and pour praise onto the manager and the players for what is, so far, a monumental effort. After all, saying you’ll piss the league and actually pissing it, are two different things.

So why are we so far clear?

Compared to last season’s National League South it does seem like the quality in the division may have dropped slightly. In terms of points tally, after 26 matches last season, the eventual winners of the league Ebbsfleet United were top on 57 points – two fewer than where Yeovil are now.

The key difference being the teams around Ebbsfleet in 2022/23. The above graphic shows that Dartford and Havant were keeping pace with the league leaders last campaign, whereas the below graphic shows that this season Yeovil have no competition towards the summit of the division.

Whilst we now know the Glovers are the best team in the league by miles, let’s for argument sake look at who might challenge in the final three months of the run in.

Maidstone United don’t score enough goals, Worthing concede too many goals and Torquay United, the pre-season bookmakers’ favourites for the league, are a huge 18 points adrift of the Glovers. Mind The Gap. Hampton have been winning games narrowly and won’t last the distance near the top while Bath City’s Plan A; Get It Wide To Jordan Thomas lacks a Plan B when they’re having an off day. You only have to look at our decision to loan out Will Buse to Bath (who were 3rd in the table at the time) to see how Mark Cooper rates their chances of challenging Yeovil.

The fact is, we’re better in every metric. We’re scoring more goals, we’ve started keeping clean sheets, we’re controlling games as Cooper wants us to and even the underlying statistics such as xG suggest the table isn’t lying. There is no team in this league that will be able to mount a sustained challenge from here on in – they just don’t have the depth or quality. It does, at times, feel like watching the Year 11s vs the Year 7s in terms of resources and experience, but we must enjoy every ounce of it because it will not be this good in seasons to come.

The squad seem to be able to grind out performance after performance and each display shows off a different weapon to the armoury. Go long against us and you’ve no chance. Jake Wannell engulfs strikers like a white blood cell protecting the body from infection and Morgan Williams gobbles up long balls like Bruce Bogtrotter. Go short against us, play us at our own game like Farnborough and Aveley tried, and our passing quality, our pressing and fitness will almost always win the day. Try to bully us like Taunton on Boxing Day and we just bully back, but harder.

Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

Joe Day has now kept five clean sheets in the last seven games and we’ve begun showing a sturdy, robustness that has allowed the team to string runs of wins together without playing all that well on occasion. In the past four games we’ve dug out 1-0 wins at Eastbourne and Taunton – these are the gritty, determined performances that wins you leagues in the cold, winter months.

The quality we have in the squad is genuinely mind-blowing for the level. In the past month the club have been able to loan out Jordan Maguire-Drew and Alex Fisher, two players who can’t get near the starting line-up, to teams in the division above. We’ve too lost Josh Staunton, who also couldn’t get a sniff of a game, to a National League outfit. Staunton has started life well at Boreham Wood, earning Man of the Match on his home debut for the club and finding himself in the National League Team of the Week.

https://twitter.com/Vanarama/status/1744328380659495162

If these players couldn’t get a game at Yeovil but are shining in the division above, that surely bodes well for next season.

There are still 20 games to play in this league though – the manager referenced as such in his post-match interview after the 1-0 win away at Taunton Town. Complacency might be our biggest danger from now until April. The facts would say there are still 60 points to play for so promotion is far from wrapped up but if the evidence of the first 26 games is anything to go by, Yeovil Town are going to win the league.

And now you’d better believe us.

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Ian’s fingers have finally thawed out after a chilly evening in Taunton as Yeovil Town ran out victors. The gap at the top of the National League South has widened and here are his conclusions from the County town.

Frank Nouble was the difference maker. It was a game of few opportunities and when they weren’t kicking lumps out of Yeovil players, Taunton defended well. When the big chance came, Frank Nouble took it with conviction. The assist from Worthington was laid on with precision but Nouble still had work to do before beating Taunton’s keeper. It’s four goals in four games for Nouble and his connection with supporters is getting stronger each week.

Frank Nouble celebrates his fourth goal in as many games.

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton took his chance. After an exciting cameo against Bath, Lo-Everton was given the opportunity from the start against Taunton and I really enjoyed his performance again. He was direct, carried the ball through midfield and some of his touches were sublime. When he plays like that, Sonny is a joy to watch and to see him further forward gives yet another attacking combination up top.

We seemed to pick up a few knocks. The break couldn’t come at a better time. Rhys Murphy came on and went back off again after feeling his hamstring. At the time, Josh Owers was poised to come on at Charlie Cooper appeared to be struggling. Jordan Young was subjected to some pretty forceful tackles. With ten days until the visit of Hemel Hempstead, there’s a nice chunk of time to rest, recuperate and come back refreshed for the home stretch.

Courtney Senior. Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

I’d be surprised if we extended Courtney Senior’s loan. The midfielder has shown glimpses of trickery and pace and I totally understand the logic behind his signing before Christmas. He was swapped for Rhys Murphy at half time and with the addition of Dylan Morgan I think we’ve got strength in depth in that position now. Will Dawes is growing increasingly popular and Jordan Stevens will return to training at the end of January, so we’ve got plenty of options. There’s definitely a player there, but I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of him. We were worried about options a few weeks ago, and we have managed that situation well.

And now you’re gonna believe us. Thirteen points clear. Momentum is with Mark Cooper’s team. The players are a close-knit group, that clearly believe. The teams below are wildly inconsistent and we are anything but. I know we’ve been scarred from the last decade, and as supporters we will always keep our expectations low, but come on, deep down know what’s happening here…

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Yeovil Town won again at Huish Park against Bath in a game where the Glovers weren’t at their ‘fluent best’ according to Mark Cooper. It was an important win, putting Yeovil 10 points clear at the top and here are Ian’s Conclusions from a bouncing Thatchers Stand…

It was a controlled performance. In the match at Twerton Park the Glovers never really felt in control of the game, but it was different at Huish Park. We controlled possession and after Jordan Young’s opener I thought we were comfortable. It wasn’t until the second half and Bath’s long ball where they started to get forward, and even then we won everything and looked resolute at the back. 

Yeovil Town celebrate Jordan Young’s opener. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown.

The first goal was a moment of magic. It was the only part of the match where things really flowed and it was Cooperball at its sumptuous best. Frank Nouble’s pass split Bath’s defence, it was inch perfect to feet of Michael Smith and his one touch pass couldn’t have been any better for Jordan Young to finish. We did that against Taunton frequently but Bath were a trickier proposition and we had to take our chances when they fell. Mark Cooper described it as a ‘trademark goal’ and it was a pattern of play we’ve grown familiar with.

Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

I thought we invited Bath onto us with the switch to a back three. With Cody Cooke’s introduction, Bath changed tact to get the ball forward quickly and in the air. Williams and Wannell dealt with it well. Jay Foulston came on in the left of a back three and it felt like Bath grew into it. Thomas got more of the ball and we got deeper and deeper. Once Dylan Morgan came on and we switched to a back four again, we regained control with a lot of help from…

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton, who made a big impact off the bench. I thought Sonny was quality, almost like he a point to prove. He was direct, forward-thinking and really got Bath chasing back towards goal. At the time we needed someone to step in and alleviate the pressure and he did it it brilliantly. Being able to bring on someone with his ability (and the rest of the bench to be fair) is a big part of the reason why we’re 10 points clear at the top.

Picture Courtesy of Gary Brown

It’s going to take a catastrophic collapse to let this slip. The gulf between Yeovil and the rest of the league is clear. Mark Cooper’s side have been the only consistent team at the top end of the League. Yesterday, Hampton lost, Torquay drew and Worthing lost. At home we’re imperious and you’d bank on us against everyone at Huish Park. Maidstone away could be tricky, but with their cup run the subsequent fixture pile up could come back to bite them. This group has every reason to be confident, and Mark Cooper will keep them grounded to get the job done, but win against crisis-stricken Taunton on Tuesday night and a gap of 13 points is surely insurmountable for the chasing pack.

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It was a Boxing Day Bonanza at Huish Park, as Mark Cooper’s Glovers put four past Taunton in front of a record-breaking crowd. Here are Ian’s Conclusions from a packed Huish Park…

It was a day when everything clicked. From the outset, Yeovil were dominant yesterday. The Glovers controlled the ball brilliantly, the attacking play was free-flowing and, in the first half in particular, it felt like every attack could have been a goal. Defensively we were strong and controlled and it was the type of performance which clearly showed the gulf between the two teams. The early change saw Rhys Murphy come on much sooner than expected and his impact was devastating as the front four caused chaos for the Peacocks defence.

Jake Wannell gets a DDT from Nat Jarvis. ? Gary Brown

There were big performances across the pitch, in each department. Jake Wannell was in a wrestling match for the first half and was extremely impressive in not taking any bait against his former side. I thought Charlie Cooper had a great game in midfield, picking passes, making the play tick over and breaking things up. Alex Whittle, back in the side from injury, picked up where he left off. Morgan Williams, as reliable as they come. Frank Nouble was absolutely purring up front. His goal was well taken in a free-flowing move, but his assist for Michael Smith was something else. As was the performance from the right back…

Michael Smith. What else can be said about the man? He finally scored his goal, in front of the Thatchers Stand and his adoring congregation. He was relentless on the right hand side with pacey running, great deliveries into the box and was an overlapping outlet all afternoon. As I said in conclusion one, it all clicked. His partnership with Jordan Young on the right is a joy to watch on days like yesterday. This team is a result of some brilliant recruitment from Mark Cooper, but the decisions to bring in Joe Day and Smith have been game-changers for this squad.  

Michael Smith plays the ball vs Taunton
? Gary Brown

It was great to see another record-breaking crowd at Huish Park. There was anticipation in the air upon arrival to Huish Park yesterday. The Ciderspace was packed, the Chairman was behind the bar and it was all hands on deck. A club that was on life-support this time last year, is absolutely thriving, with a wave of good-will and optimism behind it. With a performance like that, in front of a crowd of 6301, some casuals will have turned into die-hard Glovers! A great afternoon on and off the pitch for a club that is unrecognisable from 12 months ago.

6301 People in Huish Park, another NLS record. ? Gary Brown

Ten Points Clear. Results below Yeovil all went the right way and the gap – which was already big – has got even bigger. We’ve had the blip and come out of it on the other side looking strong and head into the new year with momentum again. We can go to Taunton with confidence, welcome Bath for another West Country derby and make another statement. You can’t help but look at the fixtures and feel confident. And now you’re gonna believe us…

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Yeovil Town sit proudly (and deservedly) eight points clear at the National League South table this Christmas thanks to a 1-0 win at Eastbourne Borough yesterday.

A first half goal from Frank Nouble put the Glovers’ ahead before an excellent rearguard action ensure they ground out the three points.

Here are Dave’s conclusions from his vantage point in the away end of the East Sussex coast….

 

Not pretty but that’s the stuff: As halves of football go, there are not many duller ones I have seen than the second half of this one. But that was absolutely lovely. The first half saw us dominate the game, create the better chances and, see Conclusion #3, score a completely legitimate goal and after that we just had to make sure we did nothing silly. Eastbourne did not look the side which caused us issues at Huish Park and, even though they probed in the second half, I don’t recall Joe Day having a meaningful save to make. Meanwhile, we were able to rest players (notably Rhys Murphy) and conserve our energy for a busy next week. Lovely stuff.

The surface at Eastbourne was everything you fear in a 3G surface.

The surface was a shocker: With the Gloverscast gagging order on 3G pitches removed, I can say that surface was everything Josh Staunton spoke about bad surfaces in the summer. It was rock hard, did not look like it had been touched in months, and totally unpredictable as to where the ball was going to go. We’ve played on half of the eight 3G surfaces in this division with Aveley, Maidstone, Slough Town and Tonbridge Angels still to come. But that’s two wins in our last two matches on 3G, so we’ll consider the hoodoo passed.

Eastbourne assistant Jamie Strong is shown a red card. Picture courtesy of LR Photography.

There was absolutely nothing wrong with our goal: Eastbourne coach Niall Clark saw red for his protests about the manner of our goal, but there was nothing wrong with it. Referee Jack Bloxham gave the drop ball to the home side’s Freddie Carter and he did absolutely nothing to play it, so Rhys Murphy nicked in, fed Nouble and goal. For my money it was naivety from Carter and nous from Murphy.

Courtney Senior looked lively: In the first half, we saw plenty of what Courtney Senior, the winger signed on loan from Barnet the day before, could bring to this team. There’s pace there, there’s trickery there, and enough to make you think that one the right surface he could cause issues. There were a couple of occasions where he lost it, or misjudged something but that is just the life of a winger, isn’t it? 

Courtney Senior in action.
Picture courtesy of LR Photography.

Enjoy your Christmas Glovers: Eight points clear at the top of the table this Christmas, 50 points in the bag and having shown an ability to win convincingly and when we’re not playing well. I’ll take that and so will 99% of other Glovers’ fans. There’s been a few things said about us being a difficult fanbase to please, but let’s not obsess with a vocal minority. Social media is not the consensus. Given where we’ve come from to get here, this first half of the season has been outstanding. Yes, there’s half-a-season to go and nothing is won in December, but this team and this manager has us believing again. Let’s keep doing what we’re doing. Enjoy your Christmas Day one and all – and let’s have Taunton for dessert! Okay, second dessert!

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In Part Three of his statistical analysis of Yeovil Town’s centre midfield, Jonathan Hooper takes us through the varying combinations we’ve seen under Mark Cooper so far this season. You can read Part  One and Part Two here.

Midfield Combinations

Before I dive into this, I love data and what it can tell you about what is happening on the pitch, but I also know it doesn’t give the full picture. Data such as xG is done on averages, as an example some teams may play above their xG for a period of time, such as German side Union Berlin did last season to qualify for the champions league but this isn’t sustainable for a long period of time, now this season they’re near the bottom of the Bundesliga. However, xG and other metrics are good indicators of the underlying performances of teams and players.

Jordan Young celebrates his opener after 16 minutes at Welling United.

xG can only show so much, for example Yeovil had a higher xG than Welling despite losing 4-1. If we look at the xG story you can see Welling’s xG was superior to Yeovil’s until the very good Fisher chance late on.

Please bear this in mind as we look at performances from different combinations and analyse the performances.

THE DATA

Yeovil have lined up with 7 (seven) different midfield combinations so far this season in the league. Here they are:

ComboGamesWonDrawnLostPointsGoalsConcededPPMGoals PMGA PMOppo StrengthExpected PPMPossesion
Worthington & Cooper641113852.171.330.8310.81.156.3%
Worthington, Lo-Everton & Cooper41215761.251.751.5012.01.655.3%
Lo-Everton, Cooper & Williams10101111.001.001.0010.02.058.0%
Worthington, Owers & Williams11003323.003.002.0012.00.540.0%
Owers, Lo-Everton & Williams11003323.003.002.0021.00.752.0%
Worthington & Owers33009723.002.330.6710.01.656.0%
Worthington & Lo-Everton6411131382.172.171.3313.31.756.0%

Worthington & Cooper and Worthington & Lo-Everton have both player 6 games and have the same record, won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. This gives them a PPM of 2.17 which are both above the teams average PPM of 2.14 so far this season. Worth noting that Worthington & Cooper have played against harder opposition on average. Oppo strength = league position of opposition / number of games, lower the number harder the fixtures.

Next with 4 games Worthington, Lo-Everton & Cooper, lowest PPM of a combination to play more than 1 match together. Then it is Worthington & Owers with 3 games and 3 wins, against the hardest opposition as well.

Quick look at a 2 combo v 3 combo

2 in the middle: 15 games, 11 wins, 2 draws & 2 losses. PPM of 2.33

3 in the middle: 7 games, 3 wins, 3 draws & 1 loss. PPM of 1.71

Cohesion, in team sports, especially football, I believe this is one of the most underrated parts of the game. Fans want new signings nonstop, but at what point does that become detrimental to the team? Just look at the amount of signings Chelsea & Nottingham Forest have made recently and how their performances are in relation. One company I like is Gainline analytics, they are mainly Australian sport dominated but their piece on Leicester in 2015/16 is very good, You can view it here.

Mark Cooper sends instructions on vs Hampton & Richmond. Picture courtesy of Gary Brown.

Keeping Mark Cooper over the summer gave Yeovil a better start to this season as it bought consistency, and his success in retaining many of the squad. During the winning run the back 5 stayed the same throughout, this can only help the team grow and understand as it moves forward. However, the rest of the team changed frequently, below I will go through the games, trying to read Mark Coopers mind, or should we call him Claudio Cooper after Claudio “the Tinkerman” Ranieri, lets find out…

START OF THE SEASON

First 4 games of the season, it was consistently Worthington & Cooper. Going by xG Yeovil slowly got better, the gap in xG between the teams grew each game. Yeovil finished ahead of their Expected points despite the loss to Hemel.

Worth pointing out Jordan Maguire-Drew, started just in front of the 2 in in midfield for each game.

OpponentPointsXG DiffExpected Points
Hemel Hempstead Town0-0.120.70
St Albans City30.231.50
Truro City30.291.50
Maidstone United10.331.50

Yeovil finished ahead of their Expected points despite the loss to Hemel. Actual 7 Expected 5.2.

Next up was Tonbridge, we started with Worthington, Cooper, & Lo-Everton for the first time. We dominate the game, xG difference is 1.10 and xPts is 2.3. Here its looks like a good change from the gaffer, 2 goals and a clean sheet. JMD didn’t start this game, in his place was Jordan Young for his first start of the season.

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton. Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz.

Next up was Havant after a 2 day turn around. Cooper selected the same trio as Saturday we started with Worthington, Cooper, & Lo-Everton, 2 changes in the back 4 and all 3 up front. However the system remained the same. We lose 4-3, we also lose the xG battle by 0.66 and our expected points is 0.5.

THE UNBEATEN RUN

Chelmsford at home sees the introduction of Williams as a DM, playing just behind a duo of Lo-Everton and Cooper. Yeovil win the xG battle by 0.75 and their xPts is 2.00 but the Glovers fail to make their chances count and draw 1-1. A positive performance.

Next up was Weston away, first of plenty Somerset derbies this season. Yeovil start Owers for the first time, Worthington and Williams joining him. Cooper misses via a suspension. Yeovil win 3-2, thanks to 3 set piece goals. However, the data suggests Yeovil got lucky. Losing the xG battle by 0.66 that means the Glovers expected points from the game was 0.5. This is where the xG story I mentioned above  comes into it a bit better, Yeovil scored 2 goals before the 20th minute. WSM got one back from a long range effort late in the first half. Yeovil get a 3rd in the 55th minute. Yeovil shut up shop and WSM throw everything at it and get a goal late on. Interestingly this game was Yeovil’s lowest possession game so far this season in the league with 40% of the ball.

Josh Owers
Josh Owers. Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz

Last two games, going by data, dominate one and draw, get dominated and win.

Eastbourne were next on the list, Yeovil lined up with Owers, Lo-Everton and Williams in the middle. Worthington started as well but in more of a left wing role. Again according to the data Yeovil were lucky to come away with the win. losing the xG battle by 0.29. their xPts was 0.7.

Winning whilst not playing well, champions stuff. Despite the wins, was Cooper happy? I don’t know but for the next match he reverted back to…

Worthington & Cooper to face Hampton and Richmond. Yeovil got the win but once again lost on data and xG difference of -0.15 and xPts 0.7. However, H&R got their goal from a late penalty, in xG a penalty is worth roughly 0.75, which means on average a penalty is scored 3 out 4 times. If you were to take the penalty away, Yeovil would have won on the data.

Aveley were the next visitors, Mark Cooper changes the midfield again, due to an injury to Charlie Cooper. Incomes Josh Owers to partner Matt Worthington. this is the midfield duo for the next 3 league games (4 if you include FA Cup against Southend) These games are also the first time Yeovil reverted to a more traditional 4-4-2. Here is how the data lines up

OpponentPointsXG DiffExpected Points
Aveley30.642.00
Worthing3-0.190.70
Weymouth30.852.00

A pretty successful run of games, winning on data comfortably on two of them. The other Worthing were awarded a penalty late on, same as the H&R game. Without that penalty Yeovil would have won each game by over 0.5 on xG.

Despite the success of this partnership, it was broken up for the Braintree game. I am unsure if this was because of injury to Owers or another reason but it was the start of a six game run for a new partnership Lo-Everton and Worthington.

OpponentPointsXG DiffExpected Points
Braintree Town3-0.070.70
Torquay United30.351.50
Dover Athletic33.002.70
Farnborough30.341.50
Chippenham Town11.012.30
Welling United00.081.50

You can see against Braintree it was a pretty even affair, not helped by the weather. Yeovil got a bit lucky in this game as the data shows. Then a strong run of form winning each game on data as well as on the pitch.

Matt Worthington. Picture courtesy of Iain Morland.

Chippenham, looking at the data it was one of our best away performances of the season, we did struggle to score on the day but the xG suggests we should have been comfortable winners.

Welling, as I mentioned at the start, we won the xG but they were leading until late on. It wasn’t Yeovil’s best performance of the season but not one where you’d expect them to concede 4.

RECENT GAMES

After the loss to Welling Mark Cooper decided to change up the midfield duo and formation.

OpponentPointsXG DiffExpected Points
Bath City3-0.160.70
Dartford11.652.70
Hampton & Richmond1-0.130.70

Bath game, Cooper replaces Lo-Everton and partners Worthington. we got lucky, had one chance and took it. That said Bath never really created a golden opportunity and only just beat us on xG. Dartford, we revert back to 3 in midfield with Worthington, Cooper and Lo-Everton, the data suggests we played well, created numerous chances but didn’t take all of them, whilst Dartford were the clinical ones. Similar to the Chippenham game.

Hampton & Richmond, continuing with the trio in midfield of Worthington, Cooper and Lo-Everton. Pretty even game one that we did lose the xG battle on just but a draw was probably a fair result.

RANKING

I have scored each of the combinations, based on fixture difficulty and xPts, here is my rankings

RankingComboScore
1Worthington Owers0.47
2Worthington Lo-Everton0.28
3Worthington Cooper0.22
4Lo-Everton Cooper Williams0.20
5Worthington Lo-Everton Cooper0.16
6Worthington Owers Williams0.13
7Owers Lo-Everton Williams0.10

Worthington & Owers come out on top, do you think they should start more often?

HOME AND AWAY

I am often interested in how teams fair differently playing away from home. Yeovil’s PPM is 0.80 per game less away from home. What causes this I do not know. Teams do seem braver at home. The fact Yeovil have lost to 2 of the bottom 4 also baffles me. Lets have a look to see what combinations have done what home and away

CombinationHome GamesHome PointsHome PPMHome xPtsAway GamesAway PointsAway PPMAway xPts
Worthington Cooper372.334.50362.002.10
Worthington Lo-Everton Cooper242.003.00210.503.20
Lo-Everton Cooper Williams111.002.00000.000.00
Worthington Owers Williams000.000.00133.000.50
OwersLo-Everton Williams133.000.70000.000.00
Worthington Owers263.004.00133.000.70
Worthington Lo-Everton393.004.90341.335.30

Conclusion

In the first part what struck me was the slight imbalance of having 2 or 3 right footed players in central midfield. I didn’t have the data to compare the midfield to a midfield with one right and one left footed player.

The second part we could start to see different aspects of players games from different metrics and stats. each player had their stand out aspect, from Owers being more feisty and getting stuck in to Lo-Everton creating chances.

In this part we can see how the different combinations fair. Owers & Worthington finished top in my metric, is that because of the balance of a right & left footed player, luck or something else? Do the tweaks that Mark Cooper makes help or hinder the side over a long term?

As Mark Cooper said in his recent press conference, we may not be winning every game currently but the data performances are generally good, if not better now than they were during the winning run. As I said at the start data can only tell you so much, if you take an early lead then look to control the game may be a success getting results but the data looks poor. We all know which one we would prefer to win between actual points and xG/xPts.

What we can see from the data is that every player and every combination has their strengths & weaknesses, lets all hope Mark Cooper can get this best out of them. Go on the Glovers!

What duo or trio would you pick to start?

SPEED OF PLAY

One thing I’ve heard recently from other supporters is that some players slows down play, I do not have the data to prove or disprove this. However, as a bonus, below is a chart showing passes per 90 and passing rate for every team in the league. Higher the passing rate the faster a team moves the ball.

Do you have any thoughts about Jonathan’s epic three-parter? Leave a comment below.

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Here is the second of three posts looking into Yeovil Town’s central midfield and what the data tells us. You can read Part One here. As with  part one, I have included Brett McGavin from Torquay as a reference point and  Luke Russe from Bath City.

ATTACK

GOALS AND ASSISTS

NameGoalsGoals per 90xGAssistsAssists per 90Expected AssistsSecond AssistsThird AssistsShotsShots per 90xG Per Shot
Worthington20.092.1330.141.8701231.050.09
Cooper00.000.7920.161.1300110.890.07
Lo-Everton10.090.2930.272.320170.720.04
Owers10.140.18000.340050.640.04
McGavin60.390.91000.3310171.10.05
Russe00.000.41000.741100.260.00

We can see Matt Worthington is leading the way with 2 goals from an xG of 2.13, with a goal every 10 games or so. Worthington is also our only midfielder to have equal or more than 1 shot per game on average.

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton as the same goals per 90 but has scored one goal and played less games. Lo-Everton only has an xG of 0.29 from 7 shots, thats less than 1 shot per game on average. Which I find quite surprising after the positioning analysis done in Part 1. 

Charlie Cooper is yet to score, despite having 11 shots and 0.79 xG. Surely his first Yeovil goal is coming soon.

Josh Owers
Josh Owers. Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz

Josh Owers has a goal, a winner against this weekend’s opponents Eastbourne Borough. Of our 4 midfielders Owers has the least shots per game (0.64) and the lowest xG created 0.18.

McGavin has an impressive 6 goals from 0.91xG, tip for anyone playing Torquay watch the edge of your area with him about!

ASSISTS

King of the assists from midfield is Lo-Everton with 3, that’s an assist once every 4 games. His expected assists is slightly lower than his actual at 2.32. Part of that could be explained as he passed to Nouble as he chipped the Eastbourne keeper from miles out. His other two assists were both to Hyde and Young and were both passes. He also has one third assist to his name.

Next up is Worthington with 3 assists from an expected assists of 1.87, which shows he is getting more assists than you would expect. His assists include a cross to Wannell to win the game against the Truro, his other two are both passes to Jordan Young.

Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz.

Charlie Cooper has 2 assists currently, one from a free kick against Bath. He was also the corner taker against Havant where we scored our first goal, which I don’t think is counted. His open play assist came against Truro with a pass to Olly Thomas. He has an expected assists of 1.13 and an assist every 0.16 games.

Josh Owers bottom again, no assists yet for him this season but he does have an expected assist of 0.34.

Interestingly from open play our central midfield have  provided 3 assists in the opening 5 games and only 4 in the 16 since.

CROSSES, DRIBBLES AND FOULS

NameCrossesCrosses per 90DribblesDribbles per 90Touches in the BoxTouches in the Box per 90FouledFouled per 90
Worthington291.32210.96200.91140.64
Cooper90.73161.2950.4292.34
Lo-Everton80.73201.8290.8240.36
Owers50.7250.7220.2971.00
McGavin40.26161.0450.32110.71
Russe01.250.170.82

Worthington makes the most crosses by over 0.5 per 90 compared to other Yeovil midfielders. The other three all make just under 0.75 a game.

Matt Worthington.
Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz.

Lo-Everton makes the most (1.82) dribbles per 90, next is cooper with 1.29 per 90, then Worthington with 0.96 and finally Owers with 0.72 per 90.

Worthington has the most touches in the box per 90 but it is still below 1 per game. Lo- Everton second, followed by Cooper and Owers.

Cooper is the 3rd most fouled player in the league winning 2.34 free kicks per 90. Owers is second most fouled Yeovil midfielder with 1 per 90, Worthington third with 0.64 and Lo-Everton last with 0.34 per 90.

DEFENCE

NameDuels per 90Duel SuccessInterceptions per 90Aerial Duels per 90Aerial Duel SuccessShots Blocked per 90Progressive Passes Allowed per90Fouls per 90
Worthington5.4862.50%3.702.4748.15%0.095.661.19
Cooper7.8369.07%3.961.780.405.330.97
Lo-Everton5.2063.16%3.190.640.404.470.64
Owers9.3260.00%3.733.150.146.452.01
McGavin8.2262.99%5.833.3761.57%0.393.561.10
Russe6.4365.77%5.873.280.305.310.56

Owers starts to show himself here, he makes the most duels however his success rate is below the others, The number of successful duels is still the highest at 5.6 per game, Cooper next best with 5.4 successful duels per game. Unsurprisingly Lo-Everton makes the least amount of duels.

Interceptions, if you look at Russe and McGavin both are around 2 more per 90 minutes than any of Yeovil’s midfielders. It may just be a style thing, Yeovil are ranked 39th out of the 48 teams for interceptions (808) and rank 7th for possession, 53.6% on average.

Aerial Duels is a metric that interests me as I often notice Yeovil either not competing for the ball or losing the second ball. Whilst there is no data on the second ball part. Aerial Duels suggest we don’t compete much for it when it is in the air middle of the pitch. Owers makes the most attempts with 3.15 per 90, then it is Worthington with 2.47, but he only wins 48% of them, that’s 1.2 aerial duels he wins a game. Cooper is third with 1.78 a game and Lo-Everton only has 0.64 aerial duels per game. This order pretty much matches their height order (Heights from Wyscout)

  • Owers 6’1″
  • Worthington 5’10”
  • Cooper 5’9″
  • Lo-Everton 5’7″
  • McGavin 6’0″
  • Russe 5’5″

McGavin has the most duels and wins the most out of the 6 players listed. However, Russe the shortest player competes for the second highest amount of aerial duels per 90. Does this mean its a tactic from Yeovil not to compete for them or they just don’t happen that often in Yeovil games?

Sonny Blu Lo-Everton. Picture courtesy of Mike Kunz.

Progressive passes allowed per 90, here the lower the number the better, Lo-Everton comes out on top for the Yeovil players, but is that because he plays further forward generally? Worthington and Cooper are about the same, but Owers lets 6.45 past him per 90, the highest amount on our list. McGavin once again topping this stat.

The last metric I’m looking at today is fouls per 90, Owers tops this one with just over 2 per 90, which is 0.22 duel per foul. Worthington also has a 0.22 duels per foul, whilst Cooper and Lo-Everton also have a similar duels per foul of 0.12. McGavin may give away 1.1 foul a game but his duels to fouls ratio is 0.13. For transparency, Russe duels to fouls is 0.09.

CONCLUSIONS

Before going this analysis I had some preconceptions, especially about Charlie Cooper and his defensive role. The number suggest he is better than I thought. However, when you compare all four of our midfielders’ defensive stats to Torquay’s McGavin, all come second best. If this was football manager, a tall Defensive Midfielder is a player I would be scouting for, if I couldn’t get McGavin.

Attack wise Lo-Everton’s stats come out on top. Because Yeovil do not have a singular DM I do wonder if this limits the attacking threat of the midfielders.

  • Best attacking midfielder is Lo-Everton
  • Best all round midfielder is Worthington
  • Best defensive midfielder is McGavin (Cooper for Yeovil)

In the next and final piece on Yeovil central midfield I will look at the midfield combinations used so far this season by Mark Cooper, or is it Claudio Cooper?